Washington — More than 40 million Americans will be on the hook for federal student loan payments starting in late August under the terms of a debt ceiling deal approved by Congress last week. The Biden administration has been targeting that timeline for months, but the deal ends any hope of a further extension of the pause, which has been prolonged while the Supreme Court decides the president’s debt cancellation.

Without cancellation, the Education Department predicts borrowers will fall behind on their loans at historic rates. Among the most vulnerable are those who finished college during the pandemic. Millions have never had to make a loan payment, and their bills will soon come amid soaring inflation and forecasts of economic recession.

Advocates fear it will add a financial burden that younger borrowers can’t afford.

“I worry that we’re going to see levels of default of new graduates that we’ve never seen before,” said Natalia Abrams, president of the nonprofit Student Debt Crisis Center.

Out of the more than 44 million federal student loan borrowers, about 7 million are below the age of 25, according to data from the Education Department. Their average loan balance is less than $14,000, lower than any other age group.

Yet borrowers with lower balances are the most likely to default. Resuming student loan payments will cost U.S. consumers $18 billion a month, the investment firm Jefferies has estimated. The hit to household budgets is ill-timed for the overall economy, Jefferies says, because the United States is widely believed to be on the brink of a recession.

Despite the student loan moratorium, Americans mostly didn’t bank their savings, according to Jefferies economist Thomas Simons. So they’ll likely have to cut back on other things — travel, restaurants — to fit resumed loan payments into their budgets. Belt-tightening could hurt an economy that relies heavily on consumer spending.

Even the logistics of making payments will be a hurdle for newer borrowers, said Rachel Rotunda, director of government relations at National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators. They’ll need to find out who their loan servicers are, choose a repayment plan and learn to navigate the payment system.

“The volume of borrowers going back on the system at the same time — this has never happened before,” Rotunda said. “It’s fair to say it’s going to be bumpy.”

“I worry that we’re going to see levels of default of new graduates that we’ve never seen before.” NATALIA ABRAMS, PRESIDENT, STUDENT DEBT CRISIS CENTER